RGTI: The Overlooked Quantum Underdog with a Fighter's Mentality

Financials: The Miss That’s Misunderstood

Let’s not sugarcoat it. Q1 2025 revenue was a meager $1.5 million. That’s 40% below expectations. The market hates surprises – unless they're euphoric.

But dig a little deeper: Rigetti actually turned a surprise profit, reporting EPS of $0.13. Yes, accounting quirks helped, but the point remains – this is a company that knows how to stretch a dollar. With $22.1 million in operating expenses, they’re clearly burning cash, but not aimlessly.

And here's the kicker – their business model isn’t based on smooth SaaS-style revenue. It’s lumpy. Milestone-based. Government contracts, defense partnerships, and R&D grants. So when a milestone hits, revenue jumps. When it doesn’t – well, headlines scream "miss" and the stock drops 12%.

That’s not a broken model. That’s a misunderstood one.

Strategic Catalysts: Real Progress, Not PR Fluff

• DARPA Quantum Benchmarking: A gold seal of legitimacy. Rigetti was selected to benchmark real-world quantum utility. That’s like NASA choosing your drone to test on Mars.

• Air Force Grant: $5.48 million to advance chip fabrication using their ABAA (Alternating-Bias Assisted Annealing) tech. It sounds complicated – because it is. This is the plumbing of the quantum future.

• Quanta Investment: Quanta Computer – not a lightweight by any means – bought $35M worth of shares at ~$11.59. They see what the Reddit crowd misses.

• Collaborations: NQCC in the UK, Innovate UK for error correction research, QphoX partnership for optical readout – this is a web of serious science partnerships, not just VC chest-beating.

And for anyone claiming these are "future bets" – well, I’d rather be betting on the lab that’s already working with governments than one that’s still animating quantum qubits in PowerPoint.

Why IonQ Gets All the Hype (And Why That’s a Gift for RGTI Bulls)

Let’s talk about the elephant in the server room: IonQ. They’re great at marketing. They’ve got the charts that go up and to the right, and investors who barely know what a qubit is eat it up.

But here’s the difference:

• IonQ is software-first, hardware-light. They rely on trapped-ion systems and third-party labs.

• Rigetti is hardware-hardened. They make superconducting qubits and the infrastructure to run them.

It’s the difference between someone renting a food truck and someone building a restaurant from scratch – plumbing, grease traps, licenses and all.

That’s why Rigetti gets fewer headlines. And that’s exactly why it’s undervalued.

The Wild Card: Retail Momentum Meets Deep Tech

Back in 2024, I watched RGTI surge nearly 2,000% in Q4. That’s not a typo. And it wasn’t all hype – it was a culmination of small wins stacking up quietly, until they burst into the mainstream.

Now, in 2025, the retail crowd is circling again. RGTI is still one of the most popular stocks on Robinhood. And despite the selloff after earnings, it hasn’t collapsed – which is itself a bullish signal.

You don’t get that kind of resilience unless the conviction is sticky.

And let’s be honest – in a world where Nvidia is flirting with $3 trillion market cap, the appetite for "next-next-gen tech" is still ravenous. Quantum computing just needs a new poster child. Rigetti has been training in the shadows.

My Experience with Quantum Doubters

I remember sitting in a room in 2018 where a guy called quantum computing a "science experiment with no practical outcome." That same guy now owns stock in three quantum ETFs.

That’s how this plays out. Skepticism gives way to FOMO. The timeline compresses. Those who planted early see their portfolios explode.

I’m not saying RGTI is the next Nvidia. But it might be the AMD to IonQ’s Intel – the hungrier, nimbler player that surprises the hell out of everyone.

Risk Factors: This Ain’t Risk-Free

To be clear – RGTI isn’t safe.

• Cash burn remains significant

• Revenue inconsistency scares Wall Street

• Commercial viability is still years out

But that’s the deal with frontier tech. You don’t invest in RGTI because it’s stable. You invest because it’s asymmetrically positioned for explosive upside if the tech matures and government adoption scales.

It’s like buying Tesla when all they had was a prototype Roadster and a dream – except this time, the government is writing checks before the product hits the road.

Price Targets: Gut Check Scenarios

Let’s map out two paths:

Bullish Scenario – Price: $20+

• Retail sentiment revives

• Quanta investment boosts confidence

• Government milestones are met and generate lump sum revenue boosts

• The $170B projected quantum computing market starts getting institutional traction

Bearish Scenario – Price: $3–$4

• Market punishes inconsistent earnings further

• Retail interest fades before next milestone hits

• Larger players eat up Rigetti’s oxygen in the media and partnerships

Personally, I’m leaning bullish. Why? Because Rigetti isn’t standing still. Every week, there’s a new deal, a new collaboration, a new line of code in the quantum stack.

That momentum matters.

Underrated Comparison: Rigetti vs. D-Wave (QBTS)

Everyone loves to pit Rigetti against IonQ. But I think the real comparison that people are ignoring is with D-Wave.

D-Wave specializes in quantum annealing – good for niche optimization problems. Rigetti is building gate-based quantum systems – far more scalable in theory, but harder to pull off.

In simpler terms: D-Wave built a calculator. Rigetti is trying to build a general-purpose computer.

The latter takes longer. But when it works, it eats the other for breakfast.

So when people say “RGTI is too early” – that’s like complaining that someone building a skyscraper doesn’t yet have the penthouse finished.

Final Word – My Personal Take

Rigetti is one of the few quantum stocks where you can feel the engineering effort. It’s not hype. It’s sweat.

Yes, the market slapped them this week. But underneath the revenue miss is a company with serious tech, serious partners, and a seriously underrated roadmap.

If you’re looking for the kind of asymmetric play where $5 becomes $15 while the rest of the market is watching AI hype tickers, RGTI belongs on your radar.

I give it an 8 out of 10 for PreBreakout – not because it’s perfect, but because it’s poised. It’s the underdog that’s already taken punches and is still throwing.

And honestly, I’d rather bet on the bruised fighter in the arena than the guy in the stands yelling about "too early."